@PhDThesis{Oliveira:2020:ImExCa,
author = "Oliveira, Kenny Delmonte",
title = "Impactos da expans{\~a}o da cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car sobre a
disponibilidade h{\'{\i}}drica no Noroeste do estado de S{\~a}o
Paulo",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2020",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2019-12-12",
keywords = "hidrologia, modelagem, MHD-INPE, tend{\^e}ncias, sensoriamento
remoto, hydrology, modeling, MHD-INPE, trends, remote sensing.",
abstract = "O Brasil possui renome mundial no {\^a}mbito agropecu{\'a}rio.
Esse conceito foi imputado mediante sua elevada capacidade de
produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o nesse setor, decorrente de m{\'u}ltiplas
vantagens competitivas, tais como a dimens{\~a}o territorial
continental, condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es edafoclim{\'a}ticas
favor{\'a}veis, disponibilidade h{\'{\i}}drica,
produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o consolidada de insumos agr{\'{\i}}colas, e
dom{\'{\i}}nio da ci{\^e}ncia, tecnologia e
inova{\c{c}}{\~a}o em agricultura tropical. A mais de uma
d{\'e}cada, diferentes usos e cobertura do solo, principalmente a
pastagem, t{\^e}m sido substitu{\'{\i}}dos pela monocultura de
cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car, que ocupa atualmente mais de 30% de
toda {\'a}rea agropecu{\'a}ria do pa{\'{\i}}s, o que concedeu
ao Brasil, o t{\'{\i}}tulo de maior produtor mundial dessa
cultura, com mais de 105 kmē de {\'a}rea plantada, e
produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o equivalente a 750 MMg.ano-1. Apesar de 91%
dessa produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o concentrar-se na regi{\~a}o
Centro-Sul, o estado de S{\~a}o Paulo {\'e} respons{\'a}vel por
mais de 52% do total nacional. Estudos revelam que a
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o linear entre a oferta h{\'{\i}}drica e a
produtividade da cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car conduziu a resultados
da ordem 1.300 mm de evapotranspira{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 37 Mg.ha- 1 para oferta de 3.200 mm de
{\'a}gua. Apesar da import{\^a}ncia econ{\^o}mica e ambiental
dessa cultura, um n{\'u}mero limitado de pesquisas tem sido
direcionado a compreender os impactos sobre o ciclo
hidrol{\'o}gico devido {\`a} substitui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
culturas menos exigentes pela cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car. O
cultivo da cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car no Brasil foi, at{\'e}
ent{\~a}o, realizado sob condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de pluviosidade
favor{\'a}veis. A expans{\~a}o para zonas com regime
pluviom{\'e}trico limitante, n{\~a}o apenas ao aumento de
produtividade, mas {\`a} pr{\'o}pria produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o tem
ocorrido sem o conhecimento dos impactos sobre a seguran{\c{c}}a
h{\'{\i}}drica, at{\'e} mesmo das atuais {\'a}reas com a
consolida{\c{c}}{\~a}o da mesma. At{\'e} o momento nenhum
estudo havia avaliado o efeito da expans{\~a}o desta cultura
contemplando a din{\^a}mica espa{\c{c}}o-temporal do uso e
cobertura do solo em passo de tempo anual em s{\'e}rie
hist{\'o}rica de elevada dimens{\~a}o. N{\~a}o tendo sido
realizada tamb{\'e}m, an{\'a}lises conjuntas entre modelos
hidrol{\'o}gicos e dados observacionais por meio de modelo
conceitual. Assim sendo, no presente estudo, prop{\^o}s-se
investigar o impacto das mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e cobertura do
solo, especialmente a expans{\~a}o da cultura de
cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car, sobre componentes do ciclo
hidrol{\'o}gico na bacia hidrogr{\'a}fica do rio
Aguape{\'{\i}}, localizada no estado de S{\~a}o Paulo. Para
tanto, valeu-se do uso consorciado do modelo hidrol{\'o}gico
MHD-INPE e do modelo conceitual baseado na hip{\'o}tese de
Budyko. Cen{\'a}rios de uso do solo foram simulados para
quantificar a varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o hist{\'o}rica sobre
componentes do ciclo hidrol{\'o}gico por fatores clim{\'a}ticos
e antr{\'o}picos. Os resultados revelaram que a
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na vaz{\~a}o apresentou comportamento quase
linear frente {\`a} expans{\~a}o da cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car,
com eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o da taxa evapotranspirativa e
varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es da ordem de -8% ou at{\'e} -20 mm na
vaz{\~a}o. Mesmo frente ao retrocesso das {\'a}reas ocupadas com
cana-dea{\c{c}}{\'u}car, a partir do ano de 2015, n{\~a}o foram
observados ind{\'{\i}}cios de varia{\c{c}}{\~a}o nas
tend{\^e}ncias dos impactos sobre os recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos.
ABSTRACT: Brazil has world renown in the agricultural field. This
concept was imputed through its high production capacity in this
sector, resulting from multiple competitive advantages, such as
continental territorial dimension, favorable edaphoclimatic
conditions, water availability, consolidated production of
agricultural inputs, and mastery of science, technology and
innovation in tropical agriculture. For more than a decade,
different uses and land covers, especially pasture, have been
replaced by sugarcane monoculture, which currently occupies more
than 30% of all agricultural area in the country, which has
granted Brazil the title of the largest world producer of this
crop, with more than 105 kmē of planted area, and production
equivalent to 750 MMg.year-1. Although 91% of this production is
concentrated in the Center- South region, the state of S{\~a}o
Paulo is responsible for more than 52% of the national total.
Studies show that the linear relationship between water supply and
sugarcane yield led to 1,300 mm evapotranspiration results and 37
Mg.ha-1 yields for 3,200 mm water supply. Despite the economic and
environmental importance of this crop, a limited number of studies
have been directed to understand the impacts on the hydrological
cycle due to the replacement of less demanding crops by sugarcane.
Sugarcane cultivation in Brazil has hitherto been carried out
under favorable rainfall conditions. Expansion to zones with
limited rainfall not only to increase productivity, but to
production itself has occurred without knowledge of the impacts on
water security even of the current areas with the consolidation of
it. To date, no study has evaluated the effect of the expansion of
this crop on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land
cover in an annual time series in a large historical series. Also
not being carried out, joint analyzes between hydrological models
and observational data through conceptual model. Therefore, in the
present study, it was proposed to investigate the impact of land
use and land cover changes, especially the expansion of sugarcane
crop, on components of the hydrological cycle in the
Aguape{\'{\i}} river basin, located in the state of S{\~a}o
Paulo. The consortium of the hydrological model MHD-INPE and the
conceptual model based on the Budyko hypothesis was used. Land use
scenarios were simulated to quantify the historical variation on
hydrological cycle components by climatic and anthropogenic
factors. The results revealed that the reduction in flow presented
almost linear behavior in relation to sugarcane expansion, with
evapotranspiration rate increase and variations of the order of
-8% or up to -20 mm in flow. Even in the face of the regression of
areas occupied with sugarcane, from 2015 onwards, no evidence of
variation in the trends of impacts on water resources was
observed. Observational by means of a conceptual model.",
committee = "Sanches, Ieda Del'Arco (presidente/orientadora) and Tomasella,
Javier (orientador) and Novo, Evlyn M{\'a}rcia Le{\~a}o de
Moraes and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s and Rotunno Filho, Otto
Corr{\^e}a",
englishtitle = "Impacts of sugarcane expansion on water availability in the
northwest of S{\~a}o Paulo state",
language = "pt",
pages = "184",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3UQ2RKP",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3UQ2RKP",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "2024, May 01"
}